Saturday, February 14, 2009

The Great Carbon-Offset Gravy Train Robbery of 2009 -- The $150 Billion-Dollar Heist?


OCOEC = The Organization of Carbon-Offset Exporting Countries?

= the CDM scamchiks, methanemeisters, hydro-hijackers & laughing-gas gamesters --> South Korea, India & China

A New Deal for Africa, a Berlin Air Lift for Africa alla carbonara?

Palella's Equation a la Drake's Equation = How Many Intelligent Carbon-Offset Projects exist in the known Universe? --->> Zero ?

In my post of 26 November 2008 entitled:

"Means Testing for Carbon Offset Originators?"

Or: "Carbon Trading -- a USD/US$ 100 billion market by 2010"

I proposed that reimbursement or payment for carbon offsets be prioritized by the level of exigency or poverty of the offsets' producer, rather than by grand-father clauses or guidelines in the current U.N. CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) rules, which often favor offset projects originated by larger companies and more economically-advantaged populations in South Korea, China and India -- Yes ! -- economically-advantaged compared to The Very Poor in Africa living on US$ 1 - 2 per day.

That post also noted the oft-stated nice-round-number projection that the carbon trading market would become a USD/US$ 100 billion market by 2010. However: "Consider this: despite the looming recession, the global carbon market grew 84% in 2008 to reach $118 billion. It's forecast to reach $150 billion this year [2009]." Cited from:

In short, the rush to monetize green-house-gas offsets is gaining momentum much faster than forecast.

And into whose pockets will the US$ 150 billion flow in 2009? -- into the Hugo Boss and Brooks Brothers pockets of investment bankers on Wall Street and to the 3 Louseketeers -- the CDM scamchiks, methanemeisters and hydro-project hijackers --> South Korea, India & China ? Lamentably, yes.

But considering all this carbon cash sloshing around, is it possible somehow to provide a New Carbon Deal, a Berlin Carbon Air Lift, a Tennessee Valley Carbon Authority for Africa, by implementing a universal markets-based, self-funding wealth-transfer mechanism called cell-phone-based Carbon Micro Credits ?

As the 100+ previous pages of this blog adumbrate or foreshadow -- yes indeed !

So what is the theoretical value on the ECX (European Climate Exchange) of allll the carbon offsets of allll families in Africa if every family converted to more efficient charcoal stoves and could monetize their carbon offsets directly via cell-phone-based Carbon Micro Credits ?

------ Palella's Equation a la Drake's Equation -----

The population of Africa = 935 million people.

Assume 6 people per family.

935 million / 6 = approximately 150 million families.

Assume 20 % are "richer" urbanites and don't cook with biomass =

120 million families still cooking with biomass.

Assume all families converted to efficient Uganda charcoal stoves =

3 tons of CO2/family/year offset X 120 million families =

360 million tons of CO2 offset/annually X US$ 10-15/ton sold on ECX =

US$ 3.6 - 5.4 billion = Total Available African-Family Carbon-Offset Market.

Which = approximately the annual foreign aid budget of the U.K. or the U.S. to Africa (depending on the source you can find)

= only 2 - 4 % of the worldwide carbon-trading market for 2009.

----- On the Family Level -----

US$ 3.6 - 5.4 billion = TAM = Total Available African-Family Carbon-Offset Market

= US$ 30 - 45 worth of carbon offsets/family/year.

+ their annual fuel savings = US$ 70 - 150+/year =

Net annual benefit to each family = US$ 100 - 195

= a 20 - 50+ % increase in their Standard of Living the first year

= Ka-ching !! Ka-ching !!

Moreover, throw in a few million individual families monetizing a few billion planted trees and a few million 2-stroke motorcycles converted to more efficient direct-injection engines and -- voila ! -- the Standard of Living of the average African family could rise 25 - 60 % in just a few years. And this large-scale wealth transfer equal approximately to the annual foreign aid budget of the U.K. or the U.S. to Africa would still represent just a single-digit percentage of the global carbon-trade market.

And most importantly, these savings/earnings/micro profit-sharings would be beamed photonically directly to the Poor Families' cell-phone-based savings/credit accounts with no middlemen trying to skim/scam/score their share of the financial benefit.

Cut out the middlemen -- that is the essence of cell-phone-based Carbon Micro Credits and Carbon Manna. Empower and enrich The Poor Directly. Respect their Property Rights. Reduce transaction costs to Zero via SMS messages sent via cell phone (only 4 cents/message in Kenya today, for example).

Send the middlemen-tals and middlemidgets to the unemployment line. Disintermediate the intermediators. Zero out the micro-moaning zero-summers. Convert debt to equity, and micro-loans to micro-profits. The Next Generation of Microfinance is here, and it is called Carbon Micro Credits and Micro Profit-Sharing. Intelligent Life can indeed been found in the carbon markets, and it will revolutionize the standard of living of The Very Poor.

So can Carbon Robin Hood steal a single-digit portion of the worldwide carbon markets for the benefit of The Poor?

Can Carbon Samurai Tailor slice off a prosciutto serving of fatty green-house-gas wealth for the Developing World ?

Can Human Compassion combined with the rational microtome of Common Sense vibrate off a négligée-thin serving of U.N. CDM spam for Africa?

To find out -- stay tuned for the next week's episode of Carbon Samurai Tailor !

Very calculatingly yours,

David Palella
Karbon Kagemusha
San Diego, CA
cell: 619-787-5767

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--->> Carbon Micro-Credits / Carbon Manna Group